The assumptions for the city as a whole were determined based on current trends in a municipal work group headed by the Urban Planning Authority (Stadtplanungsamt) and with the participation of external experts. The assumptions for the city as a whole in the last forecast proved to be realistic for the first forecast year, whereby the development in the first forecast year was slightly under-estimated. Besides the update of the parameters, only slight changes were made in 2018 compared to 2017. In total, they led to a slightly more positive overall result.
The following assumptions based on the current figures of the Civil Register of the State Capital of Dresden were made for the forecast calculation:
Births and Deaths
Statistically speaking, a woman living in Dresden currently has 1.44 children. This so-called total fertility rate will increase up to 1.46 until 2035 in the forecast. Life expectancy will increase for women to 86.7 years (+ 1.9 years) and for men to almost 81.5 (+ 2.2 years) until 2035 in the forecast.
Under these assumptions the number of births will decrease from currently about 5,800 to almost 5,200 in the year 2027 and subsequently stagnate for the time being. However, as of 2029 the birth rate will increase again and once again reach today's level in 2035. The decline in the birth rate results from the smaller number of women aged 25 to 34 who give birth to a particularly large number of children. On the other hand, the number of deceased persons will continuously increase up to 6,200 until 2028 and then stagnate. The balance between deaths and births would thus be largely balanced from 2021 until 2035. After that a new considerable excess of births would develop.
Migration
The positive migration balance which was strongly influenced by the migration of asylum-seeking persons during the past years will decrease continuously in the forecast period. It will decrease every year from currently approximately 3,500 (2017/18) to 1,300 persons in the year 2034/35. A reason for this assumption is, among others, the rather unfavourable demographic situation in the states of the former East Germany with a positive development of the labour market for employees. In the assumptions the migration balance between the states of former East Germany and foreign countries is clearly positive - however with a declining rate - and will be slightly positive in the Western German states. However, in the long run Dresden will altogether lose inhabitants, especially families with children, to the surrounding regions, as it can already be observed. Only at the end of the forecast period a decrease of migration to the surrounding regions is assumed.
Development in smaller areas with many territorial units
Besides births and deaths, significant influencing factors of the forecasted development in smaller areas are immigration, emigration and inner-city moving in grouped areas (domestic types) as well as the current construction activities and existing medium to long-term residential building area reserves. The moving and migration behaviour in smaller areas during the past years is updated in the forecast on the basis of age and gender-specific rates and quotas. On a district level the forecast for small areas is only published until maximally 2025 as long-term statements concerning moving behaviour are becoming unsecure due to construction activities and changing conditions on the housing market.
